Widgets Magazine

2013 Fantasy Outfielders 1-50

Written By Michael Curtis on 23rd January, 2013

Mike Trout and Bryce Harper lead an infusion of young baseball stars into Major League Baselll

Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are some of the best — not to mention youngest — outfielders in the game

If you missed the previously outfield rankings from 51-101 you can view them here. You can also see our first base rankings here, as well as second base and third base here.

The guys listed at the top will combine to make up a fair percentage of the first round for many drafts. In my opinion there is not only the number one overall pick, but four other players who should go off the board in the first round. The consensus number one overall pick, Mike Trout, put up one of the greatest fantasy performances we’ve seen. The fact that it was in his rookie season is even more amazing. We saw Trout contribute across all five categories in 2012. Looking ahead to 2013 — even with some expected regression in his batting average — a full season of counting stats can more than make up for any losses encountered there. You could make the argument for taking Braun or Miguel Cabrera over Trout and I wouldn’t be able to disagree too strongly, but the speed that Trout provides over those two pushes him over the top for me. These rankings, like the 51-101 ranks last week and the rest of this series are designed for mixed-league 5×5 redraft leagues.

Ranking	Player	Team
1	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels
2	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers
3	Matt Kemp	Los Angeles Dodgers
4	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates
5	Giancarlo Stanton	Miami Marlins
6	Carlos Gonzalez	Colorado Rockies
7	Adam Jones	Baltimore Orioles
8	Jason Heyward	Atlanta Braves
9	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks
10	Josh Hamilton	Los Angeles Angels
11	Curtis Granderson	New York Yankees
12	Jose Bautista	Toronto Blue Jays
13	Matt Holliday	St. Louis Cardinals
14	B.J. Upton	Atlanta Braves
15	Jay Bruce	Cincinnati Reds
16	Austin Jackson	Detroit Tigers
17	Alex Gordon	Kansas City Royals
18	Yoenis Cespedes	Oakland Athletics
19	Jacoby Ellsbury	Boston Red Sox
20	Melky Cabrera	Toronto Blue Jays
21	Mark Trumbo	Los Angeles Angels
22	Allen Craig	St. Louis Cardinals
23	Michael Bourn	Free Agent
24	Shin-Soo Choo	Cincinnati Reds
25	Bryce Harper	Washington Nationals
26	Desmond Jennings	Tampa Bay Rays
27	Ichiro Suzuki	New York Yankees
28	Carlos Beltran	St. Louis Cardinals
29	Alex Rios	Chicago White Sox
30	Josh Willingham	Minnesota Twins
31	Ben Zobrist	Tampa Bay Rays
32	Nick Swisher	Cleveland Indians
33	Norichika Aoki	Milwaukee Brewers
34	Michael Morse	Seattle Mariners
35	Carlos Gomez	Milwaukee Brewers
36	Brett Gardner	New York Yankees
37	Jason Kubel	Arizona Diamondbacks
38	Josh Reddick	Oakland Athletics
39	Martin Prado	Atlanta Braves
40	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies
41	Chris Davis	Baltimore Orioles
42	Andre Ethier	Los Angeles Dodgers
43	Jonny Gomes	Boston Red Sox
44	Ben Revere	Philadelphia Phillies
45	Hunter Pence	San Francisco Giants
46	Nelson Cruz	Texas Rangers
47	Cameron Maybin	San Diego Padres
48	Corey Hart*	Milwaukee Brewers
49	Angel Pagan	San Francisco Giants
50	Jayson Werth	Washington Nationals

*These rankings were done before Corey Hart was reported to have undergone knee surgery. He is slated to miss at least three months plus rehab time. With a perfect procedure, no complications, and a flawless rehab, he could be back by early May.

A Player to Grab: Melky Cabrera, Nick Swisher
I can understand the hesitancy around drafting Cabrera after his suspension for PED’s last season. Furthermore, I don’t think he’ll replicate his .346 batting average from last year (helped along by a career high .379 BABIP), even with some regression he has the potential to easily put up an average above league average. What is in Cabrera’s favor is moving from power killing AT&T Park to the homer friendly Rogers Centre. That he is getting to (presumably) bat in front of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion can only help his ability to score runs. To address the 800 pound gorilla, I don’t think being clean will drop Cabrera’s production that heavily. In 2012 he was able to raise his walk rate back to 7.3%, right around his career average, something that doesn’t have to do with PED usage. Additionally, his Line Drive Percentage last season was right in line with what it had been the previous several seasons (20.9%, 19.0%, 20.3% and 21.8% since 2009), while hitting much fewer balls in the air than he had previously. A higher ground ball rate will produce a higher BABIP, and as such more ground balls can lead to him making the best of his speed. Last season Melky did post a career high ISO, but the aforementioned ballpark switch can help to negate any power decline that might be conceived as being juicing related.

Nick Swisher is probably the least sexiest name that I could recommend to draft, but sometimes security is much more valuable than upside. To help prove this point are these numbers: 22, 24, 29, 29, 23, 24. Those are Swisher’s home run totals dating back to 2007 across three different teams and three wildly different ballparks. I could perform the same exercise with Swisher’s batting average numbers, but you can pretty much pencil in at least a .260 average to go along with those 25 home runs that he’ll provide your team. Moving from the Yankees lineup to a less stacked Indians squad will hurt his counting statistics a notch by virtue of having fewer opportunities to both drive in runners and well as score runs. It might not be as exciting as unearthing the next big thing, but there is a reason that Swisher was able to score a big contract this off season and that thing is consistency.

A Player to Pass: Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier
As Ron Shandler famously said, “once you display a skill, you own it”. Therein is precisely the issue surrounding Jacoby Ellsbury. In 2010, he proved that he is capable of going 30/30 while hitting for an excellent .320 batting average. If Ellsbury is that player in 2013, then his current ADP of 30 via Mock Draft Central is a massive bargain. What makes me leery of him is that Ellsbury has also missed 233 games over the past three seasons. If the injury bug hits again, then that same ADP of 30 turns from a bargain to a borderline waste of a third round pick. As Ellsbury in currently sitting in the “A Player to Pass” section of these rankings, you can guess where I stand on this particular risk-reward situation. One might argue that in a walk year, Ellsbury might be more likely to play through injuries to show off his value to teams looking to sign him in the off season, but the possibility that he might push through injuries that he usually wouldn’t could take a toll on his performance on the field. Succinctly put, its not a risk I would take with my third pick, and not one I can recommend anyone else take.

Andre Ethier will be playing everyday due to the fact that he is owed $13.5 million this year and over $17 million on average over the next four. The issue is that his salary won’t help to him to hit left-handed pitchers. Ethier had a .222/.276/.330 line against lefties last year, while hitting .325/.398/.546 against righties. It doesn’t take too much analysis to figure out that if lefties are pitching, Ethier should not be hitting, but that didn’t stop Don Mattingly from running him out there for over 200 at bats last year. That is over 200 ABs in which he performed about 25% worse than league average. If you’re in a daily league, and can strictly play the match ups with Ethier than he would be worth a late round pick. But I’m willing to bet that someone will see his total batting line from last year (a respectable looking .284/.351/.460), and pop him a few rounds before I’d be willing to spend my pick on a player who should be a straight platoon guy.

Michael Curtis

About Michael Curtis

Michael helps to cover the fantasy side of baseball at Bullpen Banter. He was born into tortured group that is New York Mets fandom and like most his age owes a huge debt of gratitude to Rob Neyer.

2013 Fantasy Rankings, Articles, Fantasy, Features, Rankings

5 Comments on "2013 Fantasy Outfielders 1-50"

geo January 23, 2013 at 1:46 pm -

Alex Gordon plays for the Kansas City Chiefs?
- Steve Fiorindo January 23, 2013 at 1:53 pm -
  
  He could probably help them out. ..

2013 Fantasy Outfielders 1-50

5 Comments on "2013 Fantasy Outfielders 1-50"

Welcome Guest

Fan Banter

2013 Team Prospect Lists

Recent Posts