2013 Outfield Rankings 51-101

Once again Wednesday brings you another tier of fantasy rankings. After looking at third base, first base, and second base already, today we move to the bottom half of the outfielders. You won’t find a fantasy MVP here, but you will find those cheap/late round draft picks that add up provide the surplus value needed to spend big on the superstars.

Ranking outfielders in the 50 to 100 range is a difficult thing to do in a vacuum. At this point in your draft or auction, more than looking for the best available player,  you’re often looking for the best possible fit for the team you’ve put together to that point. When it comes to these players listed, none are proven five category studs, but there are players who hit 25+ home runs, as well as some whole stole 25+ in 2012. My personal preference is to take the power when all else is equal. Speed — much like saves — has a habit of coming into the league for cheap during the year (case in player: Tony Campana stole 30 bases in 90 games, less than 40 of which were starts; and I’m willing to bet he wasn’t drafted in more than 10 leagues).  Even though these guys may not have the name recognition of the players who are coming next week in the top half of the list, it is in these late rounds where you can find the values that will wind up winning you a league. This assumes a standard 5×5 roto re-draft league.

A Player to Grab: Carlos Quentin
In the world of late round flyers, you need a little bit of luck, whether it is a player putting all his tools together, new mechanics clicking, or in the case of Carlos Quentin, finally staying healthy for a season. As of today, Quentin is getting taken (Mock Draft Central ADP of 234) late in the game when every player left is going to have blemishes. Quentin provides a power upside that not many others in that draft or dollar range can. In only 340 plate appearances last year, he was still able to hit 16 home runs (seven of which came in Petco, where the fences are getting moved in for the 2013 season). In August of last season, before his knee led to problems in the final month of the season, Quentin demonstrated what he is capable of when he is healthy: .271/5 HR/15 R/17 RBI in only 100 PA’s. Obviously when it comes to a player who is hurt as often as Quentin there is a fair deal of risk involved, but in the 23rd round expectation can be tempered. If he can stay healthy and perform for a month or two to start the season, you’ve already received all you could ask for from a late round gamble.

A Player to Pass: Dominic Brown, Wil Myers
But at the same time, for us to win our division and if we want to have a good chance, then more likely, if we could, we need to have more confidence in what we can get that are regular players. That was a snippet from an interview that Charlie Manuel gave during the Winter Meetings while speaking about Brown (and Darin Ruf, whom I’d also pass on). Now, I don’t necessarily need the manager’s stamp of approval to draft a player (the entire Diamondback organization seems to dislike Justin Upton, but that won’t prevent me from drafting him), but in the case of Brown, it seems clear that he needs something as simple as consistent playing time to figure out major league pitching. Unfortunately, it seems anything but clear that Manuel is willing to give it to him. I still think that Dominic Brown can be an above average major league outfielder, but like many others, I believe less and less that it will happen as a Phillie.

Myers will be rightly ranked near the top of every prospect list that comes out this off season, however that does not mean he will be able to make a valuable contribution to the 2013 fantasy season. This comes down to three reasons. The first is Mike Trout. Everyone in fantasy seems to love the shiny, new toy, and you can see that year in, year out with the inflated ADP’s that rookies and prospects seem garner. In the normal year, most of prospects will struggle with their first exposure to major league competition. Trout hit the majors last year and blew that entire concept out of the water. That amazing performance will likely lead to someone in your league trying to find “the next Mike Trout”. Let me just guarantee to you all right now, for the record, that this year no rookie will do what Trout did last year. While someone reaches for Myers, I’ll be taking the much less sexy veteran — with a major league track record and full season lined up in front of them. Which of course brings me to my second point: playing time. The team that Myers is now employed by, the Tampa Bay Rays, are notorious for keeping their budget in check, and one way of doing that is by priming their players as long as possible in the minors, often times to manipulate the service time requirements. All of this adds up to Myers spending a good deal of, at least, the early season in Durham. There is recent history to look to try to ascertain what the Rays might do, in 2010 they had another top ten overall outfield prospect who didn’t make his debut until September 1st (admittedly Jennings battled a wrist injury in the spring, but holding him back until after roster expansions sends a strong roster management message). I’m not claiming that Myers will be held in Triple-A for most of the season, but it is something to consider when drafting. The last point actually touches on Myers’ baseball ability. In his past year and half in the high minors, Myers has struck out in 22.5% of his plate appearances. While striking out that often does not preclude someone from being a fantasy asset, it does tend to impede the ability to post a strong batting average — one of Myers’s perceived strengths. If you put all three of those together, it results in a player that will be cost much more than I am willing to pay.