We’re talking with Chris Mellen today. Chris is Director of Scouting for www.SoxProspects.com, a site that focuses on the Boston Red Sox farm system. He is also the author of the excellent column “The Ladder” on that site. You can find Chris on twitter as @ChrisMellen.

Al Skorupa (BB): Thanks for taking the time to talk to us, Chris. I always enjoy your site and never miss your column. How exactly did you get into writing about Red Sox prospects?

CM: It was actually an interesting route.  I always had a huge interest in prospects growing up and enjoyed following players as they made their way up the ranks within all of the organizations.  I guess you could say being young during the baseball card boom and always on the lookout for the next hot rookie card had a big influence on me.  Being from Boston and a Red Sox fan, I found myself gravitating towards taking a big interest in the young group of players ready to make the jump to the major leagues at the time.  Players like Mo Vaughn, John Valentin, and Aaron Sele stick out as earlier ones I would track and get excited about.  You know, I pretty much found SoxProspects.com by accident as a guy I went to college with had signed with the Red Sox organization and I was looking for information on him when I came across the site.  Not soon after, I was fortunate to meet the founder Mike Andrews at a game and things snowballed from there really to where they are today.

AS: Its been a very exciting offseason in Boston. What do you make of the Red Sox offseason moves?

CM: It indeed has been an exciting offseason in Boston – the biggest one in recent memory in terms of the organization making a huge splash in both the free agent and trade markets.  With the team coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued season and missing playoffs in 2010, you kind of knew something big was on the horizon.  The Adrian Gonzalez trade was certainly that initial big move - it provides the club with the middle-of-the-order bat that solidifies the lineup for seasons to come.  Throw in solid defense at first base as well.  The Red Sox did pay a price with flipping Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, and Reymond Fuentes to San Diego, but the ultimate goal of the farm system is to help the major league team in some shape or form, so it really speaks volumes to that goal to be able to acquire a player of Gonzalez’ caliber.  Then, they sign Carl Crawford to a mega-deal later that week, while retooling the bullpen with Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler on top of that.  All in all, on paper at least, it’s been an extremely positive offseason in solidifying a highly competitive team for an extended period of time. Red Sox fans certainly have reason to be excited for next year.

AS: Have to ask... (I’ve gotten a different answer from almost everyone I’ve talked to) - what does your 2011 Red Sox lineup look like?

CM: Well, I’d start with Jacoby Ellsbury leading off and playing center field.  He had a tough 2010 season, caught some flack from the media and fans alike, but as someone that had a chance to see him develop since his first game at Lowell I’ve always liked his game.  Next I’d have Dustin Pedroia in the two-hole followed by Crawford and Gonzalez.  That’s a pretty good grouping of hitters right there.  Kevin Youkilis would hit fifth in my lineup, followed by David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Marco Scutaro/Jed Lowrie rounding out the bottom of the order.  On days that he’s in the lineup, I’d also consider putting Lowrie in between Ortiz and Drew to break up the lefties.  Of course, Terry Francona may have different thoughts and has the final say, but yeah, that’s my 2011 Red Sox lineup.

1. Ellsbury
2. Pedroia
3. Crawford
4. Gonzalez
5. Youkilis
6. Ortiz
7. Drew
8. Saltalamacchia
9. Scutaro

AS: Are you satisfied with the direction of this team and the state of the organization over the last few years? Has there ever been a better time to be a Red Sox fan than under the John Henry/Theo Epstein regime?

CM: Fans in Boston are pretty tough and there is a lot of competition in the city given that it is a four-sport town, especially with the Patriots and Celtics having a lot of success in the recent years.  Since the current ownership and Theo Epstein have taken the reins, it’s hard not to be anything but satisfied with the state of the organization.  Ending an eighty-six year World Series drought and adding another one on top of that a few years later has that effect.  But it also brings a lot of raised expectations and a constant desire to win from the fan base.  The Red Sox are no longer that loveable bunch of losers that blows it at the end anymore.  With the type of offseason they’ve had and the constant dedication to winning since taking over the team, you’d be pressed not to think of a better time for Red Sox fans.  One thing I’ve always admired about Epstein is his commitment to sticking to his guns, coupled with his dedication to building a farm system as a feeder pool of players for the big club or as a way of acquiring talent to help the major league team.  Plus, that’s brought a lot of interest into all of the prospects and certainly makes things exciting for us at SoxProspects.com.

www.soxprospects.com

AS: Speaking of John Henry, are you a soccer fan at all? Any thoughts on the Sox buying Liverpool?

CM: I’m more of a casual soccer fan at best to be honest, mainly having interest around World Cup time, as that is always pretty fun and exciting to follow the passion that much of the world has for the sport.  A lot was initially made in the mainstream media of John Henry buying the Liverpool team, and whether that would affect how the Red Sox spend money.  Given the lengths they’ve gone to break the bank this off-season and spend up to a considerable payroll amount, those notions were put to rest quickly.  I think it’s good for the fans of Liverpool and also for the English Premier League that an owner like John Henry has decided to come on board.  If his track record as a baseball owner is any indication, followers of the club are going to be pretty happy.

AS: The Sox farm system is undeniably down following the Gonzalez trade (not that anyone seems to mind). What are your thoughts on this system as a whole?

CM: Anytime that a farm system loses its top prospect, a player ranked very close behind, and a top fifteen prospect, it is a hit to the system.  Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo are two very good prospects while Reymond Fuentes has excellent raw tools to be developed.  There is no doubt that, as you mentioned, the farm system is somewhat down.  To take it a bit further, it currently lacks that blue chip prospect shine right now in the upper levels of the system.  However, there are players like outfielder Ryan Kalish and left-handed pitcher Felix Doubront that have a chance to be contributors in 2011 along with outfielder Josh Reddick, infielder Yamaico Navarro, and first basemen Lars Anderson as potential injury depth over the course of a 162-game season.  Shortstop Jose Iglesias also appears to be on the horizon and has the potential to be a fixture in the middle infield for years to come.

One of the themes of the system in recent years has been the depth of talent that the organization has been able stockpile.  That crop features prospects like right-handed pitcher Stolmy Pimentel, right-handed pitcher Kyle Weiland, third baseman Will Middlebrooks, second baseman Oscar Tejeda, left-handed pitcher Drake Britton, and catcher Ryan Lavarnway, along with a strong 2010 Draft class featuring highly talented players like righty Anthony Ranaudo, infielder Kolbrin Vitek, and prep infielders Sean Coyle and Garin Cecchini, just to name a few.  While the system isn’t quite loaded with upper level talent like in years past, with the way the Red Sox have structured their roster, they’ve put themselves in position to reap the benefits of the next bumper crop of prospects as the roster turns over down the line.

AS: A player who has frustrated the heck out of many people, myself included, is Lars Anderson. He didn’t quite have the breakthrough season we expected in 2010, although there were positive markers.  What do you see in your crystal ball for Lars?

CM: I had the chance to see Anderson about four or five times during his sixteen game stay with Double-A Portland to begin the 2010 season.  He was locked in pretty good at the plate to start the season and really driving the ball with authority from gap-to-gap.  It was more of the Anderson of pre-2009 than the one who was often hesitant, fooled, and lacked confidence in 2009 with Portland.  After his promotion to Triple-A, he had an adjustment period and then began to get back to his early comfort level towards the tail end of the season.  2011 is no doubt a big year for development and consistency with Anderson.  Because of how he came onto the scene and how quickly showed he was ahead of the curve in the low minors, people sometimes forget that he’s still only going to be 23 years old for this entire upcoming season.  While there are some questions about how his power will translate at the major league level, I think with some work on quickening up his swing on balls on the inner third of the plate along with some more maturation with his approach, he can get back on the track as a potential productive hitter at the big league level.  However, with the acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez, he looks to be blocked – at least at first base - and his future with the organization seems a bit up in the air.  If I had to venture a guess, with a good showing that he can consistently handle upper level pitching, he looks like a trade chip should that need arise once the 2011 season gets going and possible needs begin to shape up. That being said, the Sox may also have an opening at designated hitter, perhaps as early as 2012.

AS: After an up and down college season, Anthony Ranaudo really lit up the Cape League. Can he be a frontline starter in the majors?

CM: I’ll throw the caveat out there that I’ve only seen Anthony Ranaudo throw on video and just about all of the scouts I speak with are in the same boat or have had limited viewing, but he looks to have the potential to fulfill that type of role once he gets going as a professional.  He really struggled with his mechanics during this past season, mostly due to injury, and was unable to get himself back into the groove that lead many to project him as high as second in the draft at the beginning of the season.  Ranaudo possesses a fastball that shows excellent velocity and nice tail when he consistently gets on top of it to throw on a downward plane, which he was able to do during his time in the Cape League this past summer.  He rounds that out with a hammer curveball and a change-up he has shown good feel for.  The organization made him a top priority this past summer and his bonus shows their belief in his talent.  I see him needing some time to continue to work out a few kinks with his mechanics to re-establish his fastball command and produce consistent velocity, while also sharpening his secondary stuff to big league caliber out-pitches, but the package is certainly there for him to round into the top arm within the system as the 2011 season progresses.

AS: Drake Britton really improved his stock in 2010 after returning from Tommy John surgery. How excited should Boston fans be about Britton?

CM: Drake Britton is another player I’ve been able to see since he first entered the Red Sox system and one I was pretty interested in after the organization made him a late round bonus baby back in 2007.  During the first couple of outings I saw in the spring of 2008, his stuff wasn’t really as advertised, but shortly after that he was shut down and underwent Tommy John Surgery as you mentioned.  The first thing I noticed with Britton upon his return to the mound was how much better his fastball looked coming out of his hand and an uptick in velocity, clocking him as high as 97 mph and sitting 93-94 mph, albeit in shorter controlled outings.  His mechanics were also much crisper and he was throwing considerably more loosely.  This past season, the organization started him on a shorter leash, but as he got further removed from surgery during the summer his name came up more and more in conversations with scouts who saw him.  Another big thing for Britton this past year was the honing of his fastball command and his ability to spot up on the corners, while also continuing to show good velocity as he went a bit deeper into outings.  He’s always had an excellent curveball with good depth and that offering has returned to form as well.  Britton is definitely a name that Red Sox fans should begin to become familiar with.  I’d temper excitement just a bit given the volatility of young players from one level to the next and because he still needs to develop his change-up into a legit third pitch in his arsenal, but with his age and further mound experience, he’s a prospect on the rise.

AS: Kolbrin Vitek played all over the place in college. Are his defensive issues more a lack of experience than a lack of tools? What position do you think he ultimately plays?

CM: How about a little bit of both?  Vitek had moved to second base this past season with Ball State as he also served as the team’s number one starter and they wanted to save his arm.  He was pretty rusty over at third base when he first got to the short-season team in Lowell, and that definitely showed right out of the gate.  As their season wore on, Vitek began to show more of a comfort level and got up to speed with how the ball was coming off the bat, along with playing the correct angles again at the hot corner.  With that said, he lacks natural fluidity at the position and showed just-about average reactions.  Again, with him going right back into the fire at third base during his first taste as a professional, I think this upcoming spring training and subsequent season will be a better tell of how he is progressing.  I’m mixed though on whether he can stick in the infield, and some of the opinions polled have also mentioned that.  Vitek shows an outstanding work ethic to get better, but ultimately I’m inclined to say a move to the outfield will be the route as his bat rounds into form at the upper levels of the organization.

AS: What are the chances Ryan Lavarnway sticks at catcher?

CM: Good question - that certainly has been a hot topic during this past season.  I was able to see a lot of Lavarnway in the spring and after his promotion to Double-A.  His bat is definitely his big strength, displaying good control of the strike zone, the ability to get the fat part of the barrel on the ball, and pretty good power.  When he squares the ball up, he can drive it a long way.  Defensively, his skills as a whole look limited and I’m not sure there is enough there to carry him to the defensive level of a regular big league catcher.  While he’s come a long way since he signed and made some strides, he’s still pretty rigid and stiff behind the dish.  Lavarnway’s release with his throws has made good improvement and I’ve seen him putting in the work, but he probably needs to pick up some defensive versatility to consistently get his bat into a lineup as he continues to develop his offensive game.

AS: The pro debut of Bryce Brentz wasn’t exactly impressive. Did you get a chance to see him? What are your thoughts on Brentz?

CM: Brentz displayed a lot of “aluminum bat swing” when he first showed up in Lowell in that he was trying to yank every single pitch and not leading that much with his hands.  That resulted in a good number of strikeouts and weak contact produced because he was lopping around the ball with the head of the bat.  He also displayed an ultra-aggressive approach and didn’t really work enough at-bats to get pitches he could handle in hitter’s counts.  Brentz’ summer with Lowell was pretty much plagued with those things.  I also got a chance to see him down in Fort Myers at the team’s Instructional League, and he had begun to make strides with leading with his hands more, to take what was given with him and go with the ball.  He still showed some bat wrap on breaking balls down and away from him though.  His approach looks like a work in progress, but one that can improve with continued exposure to professional pitching and come up to speed quickly as he becomes more comfortable with his strike zone.  I like Brentz’ plus arm out in right field and see him rounding out as a solid corner outfielder.  He has pretty good power potential, and with some work on improving the separation with his hands to keep them back as he strides towards the ball, Brentz can tap nicely into that.  While he’s going to be aggressive, he needs to work more on managing at-bats as he gets going.  He’s another player that was feeling things out in his first exposure to professional pitching, so a full season will be a better indication of how well he’s coming along with his development.

AS: This is an astoundingly deep system. I know Xander Bogaerts and Jose Vinicio have gotten a lot of buzz recently. Anyone else we should keep an eye on?

CM: You mentioned Bogaerts and Vinicio so I’ll touch on them for a second.  Both are young shortstops signed out of the international free agent market.  Vinicio is very slight of build, but just turned 17 years old this past July.  He’s an energetic kid with good defensive skills and didn’t look overly out of place with the older players aside from his lack of being filled out.  Vinicio is a switch hitter and can get the bat on the ball, but lacks power behind his swing as you’d expect.  Bogaerts is a very lean and athletic 18 year old, with the body to really pack on some muscle as he matures.  I see him moving over to third base as he gets older, but think he’ll maintain enough of his athleticism to stick in the infield.  I was impressed with how he used his hands to go with the ball at a young age down in Instrux and can keep his hands back to generate power, which looks to have the potential to be average or better down the line.  Both are extremely young, raw, and far away with a lot of development in front of them obviously.

Another couple of names to keep an eye out for are Stolmy Pimentel, Will Middlebrooks, and outfielder Henry Ramos, a 2010 draftee.  Pimentel is a name that has been around for a while amongst Red Sox prospect followers, and another one of the players I have seen since his very early stages.  He’s been in our Top 10 for a bit, but he’s just turning 21 years old this season and should break camp in Double-A, which will be a good challenge for him.  With some more work on being consistent with his mechanics, especially in regards to his balance and landing, I see him being a player that can take the next step with his stuff.  Middlebrooks struggled considerably with his pitch recognition and approach during his early career, but has made some nice strides over the last couple of seasons.  His swing is on the level side and needs a bit more lift to tap into his power, which can translate into above-average as he gets older.  Defensively, he has the makings of a plus fielder and that aspect of his game took a big step this past season.  Middlebrooks, like Pimentel, looks slated to begin the season in Portland, and that will be a good test to push his approach further given the advanced pitching he is going to see.  Ramos is an athletic outfielder out of Puerto Rico who has shown some nice tools.  I got a chance to see him down in Instrux, and while he’s got rough edges to work on, I like his plus arm out in right field and the power potential packed into his frame.  At 18, he’s much further away and is most likely to stay back in extended spring training after the full season teams head north, with an eye on a placement in Lowell once their season gets going in June.

Thanks so much, Chris. Really enjoyed talking with you. Interesting turning point for this system. We could be looking at a very different group of top prospects for 2010, with lots of early draft picks and players facing critical seasons. Don't forget to take a look at Chris's work over at www.soxprospects.com.

-AS