Nolan Arenado #58 – 2013 Top 100
Date of Birth: April 16th, 1991(age 22)
Origin: 2nd Round Pick(#59 overall) in 2009 out of El Toro HS(CA)
Steve Fiorindo: You may have noticed a theme on the majority of the players that I am the lead commenter on; they’re prospects that i’m higher on than the rest of the staff. This is true for Rockies third base prospect Nolan Arenado. Some are down on him after his 2012 season, perhaps thinking that he should have put up gaudy numbers in Double-A and received a late cup of coffee with the big league club in Colorado. That’s not the expectation I had for Arenado; what I expect to see is a solid every day third basemen who should be ready to fill that role around the All Star break (if not sooner). In last year’s discussion I finished off my comment on Arenado with this sentence, “Arenado is just a baseball player, and a pretty damn good one.” There is nothing that he did this past season that makes me feel any differently.
JD Sussman: Steve, seeing Arenado’s work ethic and maturity questioned was a shock to me after he had worked hard the previous off-season to overhaul his body and defensive ability. I understand observers’ concerns that a player with Arenado’s profile – good walk rates, strong contact ability, and strength – hasn’t posted a well above-average statistical line to date. However, I still see an above-average hitter who will develop power. As I watched him play, questions about his athleticism mounted and left me wondering how he would age.
Conor Dowley: Arenado is a weird case to me. You look at the things he can do, and you see nothing but positives. He’s patient; he has a sound swing; his frame projects good power; and he’s a pretty good defender at third base. You look at the end product, though, and the sum doesn’t add up to all of the parts. Like Steve said, Arenado is a hell of a ballplayer. Sometimes a player just takes a longer to put everything together than you expect, and I have the feeling that’s what we’re seeing with Arenado. If I had to hitch my wagon to any one player in this area of our top 100 to really explode this year, I think Arenado is who I’d tap.
Fantasy Outlook by Alex Hume
Arenado is destined to be the Rockies third baseman of the future. He has shown decent plate discipline and strong capability to make contact with the baseball. His drop in ISO three years running is concerning, although the first drop can be attributed, at least partly, to leaving Asheville Colorado to a more neutral environment.
He played Double-A in 2012, and the Rockies will most likely give him a full year at Triple-A before recalling him to the major leagues. However, he should come up in September when the rosters expand and could conceivably wrest the starting third base job from the whiff-prone Chris Nelson by Opening Day 2014.
By 2016, he could be a solid tier-two third baseman, especially with Coors Field as his home park
2013 value: September call-up, 2016: Low Tier-2 3B